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Presenting Yubi Macro Pulse, a monthly summarisation and round-up of financial news and statistics which will help you keep track of everything happening in the economy.

A Look at Key Macro Statistics

The incoming data in past few weeks indicate that the domestic economic recovery is maintaining its traction amid global  headwinds.  

The rural economy exhibited growth in wages led by non-farm wages even though the wages in farm sector moderated.  However, rural unemployment rate increased to 8% in October from 5.8% in September. Urban unemployment rate moderated  to 7.2% in October from 7.7% in September.

Consumer Activities

Cumulatively, about 8.5mn salaried jobs were added during September and  October, highest levels since March 2020. Salaried jobs now stand at about 85mn indicating pre-pandemic levels. Further,  traction in rural demand is evident from higher registrations of tractors and 2-wheelers in October. 2-wheeler registrations  increased by 51.1% YoY in October from 9% in September. Overall October was a good month for vehicle registrations.  Passenger vehicle registrations increased by 40.6% YoY in October against 9.7% in September. Commercial vehicle  registrations in October was up by 25.4% YoY from 18.9% in September.  

Manufacturing and Production

Manufacturing activities gained traction in October with seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI inched up to 55.3 in October  from 55.1 in September on increase in employment and stock of purchases. Earlier the index of industrial production (IIP) had  a modest growth of 3.1% YoY in September from a contraction of 0.7% in August.

All the sectors in IIP viz. mining,  manufacturing and electricity witnessed growth in September. Among the used based classifications; primary goods, capital  goods and infrastructure goods registered signification growth in September. However, growth of national highway  construction faltered by -20% YoY in October from 38% growth in September.

Cumulatively during April-October FY23,  national highway construction contracted by 8.8% compared to corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Production of  cement and steel posed moderate growth in September suggesting growth in real estate and infra segment. Consumer durables  and consumer non-durables declined by 4.5% YoY and 7.1% YoY respectively in September indicating some pressure on  consumer goods.  

 

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Services

Service sector continued its uptick with seasonally adjusted service PMI expanded to 55.1 in October from 54.3 in September.  However, there was some moderation in traffic parameters with port traffic moderated to 9.8% YoY in October from a high  of 14.9% in September.

GST collection continued its robust strike to grow by 16.6% YoY in October to INR 1.52tn. Significant  momentum was observed in petrol and diesel consumption indicating traction in mobilities amid festive seasons. Petrol  consumption grew by 6% sequentially in October while diesel consumption grew at a double-digit rate of 11.6% MoM.  

Key Economic Indicators – At a Glance

Retail inflation measured in terms of consumer price index (CPI) softened to 6.77% YoY in October from 7.41% in September.  Food inflation came down to 7% YoY vs. 8.4% previous month driven by vegetables, oil and fats. Core inflation remained  sticky at 6%.  

Bank credit continued its robust growth with aggregate credit of SCBs stood at 17.9% YoY in October. Aggregate deposit  grew by a modest 9.5% YoY in October. Credit growth is witnessing all round improvement with agriculture credit grew by  13.4% YoY, industry 12.6% YoY, services 20% YoY and personal loan by a 19.6% in September.  

Export came down by -16.6% YoY to USD 29.8bn in October due to global slowdowns. Imports moderated to 5.7% YoY in  October driven be non-oil non-gold imports. Trade deficit widened to USD 26.9bn in October from USD 25.7bn in  September.

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